واقع الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر في ظل تحولات الاقتصاد الرقمي: دراسة قياسية للفترة 1998-2024، سنغافورة نموذجاً
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59992/IJSR.2026.v5n1p12الكلمات المفتاحية:
الاقتصاد الرقمي، الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر FDI، نموذج الارتباط الذاتي AR1الملخص
تهدف الدراسة إلى تحليل متغيرات الاقتصاد الرقمي على اجتذاب الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر من خلال عدة متغيرات اقتصادية ورقمية (نصيب الفرد من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، إجمالي مستخدمي الإنترنت كنسبة مئوية من السكان، اشتراكات النطاق العريض، تكوين رأس المال كنسبة من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي) للفترة 1998-2024 سنغافورة نموذجا مع مراعاة الأثر الزمني للاستثمار الأجنبي. اعتمدت الدراسة على اختبار السلاسل الزمني باستخدام اختبار دكي -فولر الموسع (ADF) وتبين أنها أصبحت مستقرة بعد أخذ الفرق الزمني الأول مما استوجب استخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي AR1 متضمنة متغير المتأخر لتفسير العلاقة بين المتغيرات ولامتصاص مشكلة الارتباط الذاتي. أظهرت النتائج أن النموذج يفسر 75.3% من التغير في الاستثمار الأجنبي كما أن جميع المتغيرات ذات دلالات إحصائية عند مستوى معنوية 5% كما بلغت قيمة Adjusted R 0.681 مما يدل إلى قوة تفسيرية للنموذج. خلصت الدراسة إلى أهمية تعزيز البنية التحتية الرقمية وإجمالي نصيب الفرد من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لما له دور فعال اجتذاب الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر.
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